Seasonal hiring plans for the 2026 holiday season are on track to hit their lowest level since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Walmart and Target have both skipped their traditional big seasonal hiring push for a third year running, leaning on existing staff picking up extra hours instead. Amazon remains the exception, still building out a large seasonal fulfillment and transportation team. The reasoning behind the pullback is consistent across the industry: tariffs, inflation, and a growing reliance on automation and permanent staff instead of large seasonal waves. Warehouse and distribution volume has not gotten the same memo. Peak season swings are getting sharper, not softer, and that gap is where a lot of operations plans will break this year.

The Seasonal Hiring Pullback Is Real

Challenger's research puts seasonal hiring plans for the 2025-2026 holiday cycle at their lowest point since the recession year of 2009, driven largely by cost pressure and automation adoption. Retailers are telling a consistent story: fewer large seasonal waves, more reliance on existing teams and technology to absorb the load. That is a real change from the last decade of playbooks, where committing to a large seasonal headcount every Q4 was the default move for almost every warehouse and distribution operation.

But Peak Season Volume Swings Are Getting Bigger, Not Smaller

The labor market data tells a different story than the hiring announcements. Indeed Hiring Lab's research shows that logistics-related postings surged sharply heading into the 2025 holiday season, then pulled back just as fast once it ended, and that the swing between the two is getting more pronounced each cycle. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report shows job openings across trade, transportation, and warehousing have stayed elevated even as formal seasonal hiring plans shrink. Together, that points to a labor pool that has not grown to match the volume swings Companies are actually seeing on the floor.

Why the Old Playbook Doesn't Close the Gap This Year

The standard advice still holds: start planning 8 to 12 weeks before peak volume hits. But that advice assumes a Company can commit to a fixed headcount months in advance and adjust from there if needed. That model gets harder to execute when the broader seasonal hiring pool is shrinking and the core team meant to absorb the difference is already stretched by cost-cutting and automation transitions. A forecast built in August can be wrong by the time real volume hits the floor in November, and a fixed seasonal commitment does not flex when that happens.

What Actually Closes the Gap: Matching Labor to Volume as It Happens

The Companies handling this well are not trying to out-forecast the market. They are building a way to reach available workers the moment volume becomes real, not months before it does. Spotwork's marketplace connects Companies to available workers in minutes, not weeks, so operations teams can post jobs as volume actually moves instead of locking into a headcount plan that may not match what November delivers. There is no long-term commitment or agency lock-in: Companies post jobs when they need coverage and scale down when they do not. With 300,000 Spotters on the platform across 35+ markets and a 95%+ fulfillment rate, Spotwork gives operations teams a way to close the gap between what was planned in August and what actually shows up on the floor in Q4, backed by 24/7 platform support for both sides of the marketplace.

If your peak season plan depends on a hiring forecast made months ago, it is worth building a backup that does not. Post jobs on Spotwork and connect with available workers on the marketplace when your real Q4 volume arrives, not before.

FAQ

Why is seasonal hiring down in 2026?

Challenger, Gray & Christmas projects seasonal hiring plans for the 2025-2026 holiday cycle at their lowest level since 2009. Retailers point to tariffs, inflation, and a growing reliance on automation and permanent staff instead of large seasonal waves as the main drivers.

Does lower seasonal hiring mean warehouses need fewer workers for peak season?

No. Warehouse and distribution volume swings are getting sharper, not smaller. Indeed Hiring Lab data shows logistics job postings surge and pull back more dramatically each cycle, and BLS data shows job openings in trade, transportation, and warehousing have stayed elevated even as formal hiring plans shrink.

How far in advance should Companies start planning for peak season?

The standard guidance is 8 to 12 weeks before peak volume hits, and that timeline still matters for core planning. It assumes a fixed headcount forecast will hold for months, which is harder to count on this year. Pairing early planning with a way to reach available workers in real time closes the gap a fixed forecast leaves open.

What is the difference between seasonal hiring and posting jobs to a labor marketplace?

Seasonal hiring commits to a headcount plan set months in advance. Posting jobs to a marketplace like Spotwork lets Companies connect with available workers as volume actually changes, with no long-term commitment or agency lock-in required.